The lastest National Intelligence Estimate N.I.E. says with “high confidence” Iran stopped its nuclear weapons programme in 2003. It must be election time. The G.O.P. knew Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini had issued a fatwa declaring nuclear weapons as contrary to state policy some time ago. The reason for this latest “revelation” is political. The Bush administration knows that it could never have gotten either Congressional or U.N. support for a bombing campaign against Iran. It also knows that an invasion could not have been implemented due to a lack of force structure capable of such a monstrous and evil undertaking.
The government which said Saddam had Weapons of Mass Destruction (W.M.D.) and invaded to decapitate his government and alleged programme then found out there were no weapons of mass destruction. Now the intelligence community is saying Iran has no nukes and indeed for five years has eschewed a fission-weapon programme and so there is no need to invade. Maybe the “Iraq Syndrome” (I loved the Vietnam one) has made it less likely the United States will use force to engage ostensibly in counterproliferation because the Director of the Office of National Intelligence is too inept in developing “high confidence” HUMIT and some recognise the strategic disaster such adventures cause.
While I do not know absolutely why the Bush administration has stepped down from another front in its war of aggression against Islam, I think it may be the Huck-Rudy-Mitt factor. Going into 2008, the Republicans do not need another war on top of an unpopular war. No October surprise scenario because one war is too many now; yes a war with Iran would have been likely had we not been bogged down in Vietnam-west (Iraq) and such a declaration of an imminent nuclear threat would have played well in Peoria: remember how the war criminals played it so well in 2002 and 2003. Someone somewhere has recognised that some wars are not politically advantageous and have spread the news that Iran is not a nuclear nation, does not have nuclear ambitions beyond atomic-energy development and that other items of strategic importance should occupy the United States: like the destruction of the Earth by American corporate greed, the globalisation disaster of exporting pollution and Marxian proletarian misery to developing nations and the need to stop nickle and diming hard working Americans and give them health insurance.